Limitless Exchange is a decentralized prediction market platform built on the Base network, designed for trading event-based outcomes, with a particular focus on short-term asset price movements. It utilizes a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) model for trading and supports the creation of markets based on natural language expressions. The platform aims to provide fast, low-cost trading with on-chain settlement. ^[6]

Overview

Limitless Exchange operates as a decentralized prediction market platform on the Base blockchain, emphasizing speed and reduced transaction costs through its order-book interface. The platform supports both market and limit orders, facilitating on-chain settlement without relying on Automated Market Maker (AMM) models or complex pricing curves, such as those based on the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR). By employing a hybrid architecture, Limitless seeks to lower gas fees and simplify the user experience compared to some alternative prediction market designs.

The platform is designed for accessibility and capital efficiency, allowing for the creation of markets based on natural language conditions and minimizing barriers to entry. Users can trade directly from their cryptocurrency wallets without requiring extensive onboarding processes. While primarily permissionless, the platform incorporates optional features to support regulatory compliance when necessary. Limitless also works to improve market liquidity and execution quality across various market types by potentially aggregating depth through cross-chain bridges and oracle integrations, aiming for tighter bid-ask spreads. ^{[1] [2]}

Features

CLOB

Limitless Exchange implements a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) system to manage the trading of prediction market shares. This structure is similar to those found in traditional financial markets. For each prediction market, there are two distinct order books: one for "Yes" shares (representing a prediction that the event will occur) and one for "No" shares (representing a prediction that the event will not happen). These order books display the current bids (prices at which users are willing to buy shares) and asks (prices at which users are willing to sell shares) ^[1].

Traders can place market orders for immediate execution at the best available price, or limit orders to specify the exact price at which they wish to buy or sell shares. Limit orders are added to the order book and are filled when a matching order is found. Orders placed closer to the prevailing market price generally have a higher probability of being executed. Users who contribute liquidity by placing competitive limit orders may be eligible for rewards through the platform's liquidity provider (LP) incentive program.

A unique feature within prediction markets supported by Limitless is the ability to merge and split shares. Users can, at any time, convert $1 of collateral into one "Yes" share and one "No" share for a specific market. Conversely, one "Yes" share and one "No" share from the same market can be combined back into $1 of collateral. This mechanism is designed to enhance capital efficiency for traders and help consolidate liquidity across opposing outcomes within a market, thereby contributing to improved order book depth and matching. ^[1]

Negrisk

Negrisk, also referred to as category markets on Limitless, represents a type of prediction market where multiple potential outcomes are defined, but only one can ultimately be true. This structure is analogous to a multiple-choice question. While each outcome within a Negrisk market has its own "Yes" and "No" order book, the "No" shares across all possible outcomes in that market are linked.

This interconnectedness of "No" shares enables a share conversion feature. If a trader holds a "No" share for a specific outcome within a Negrisk market, they can convert it into a "Yes" share for any of the other outcomes in that same market. This is based on the logical premise that if one outcome does not occur ("No"), then one of the other defined outcomes must occur ("Yes"). If a trader holds multiple "No" shares and there are not enough corresponding "Yes" shares from other outcomes available for conversion, the excess "No" shares can be converted directly back into the market's collateral currency, typically USDC. This conversion functionality is designed to help maintain price consistency across related outcomes and improve trading efficiency.

Negrisk markets are designed to enhance capital efficiency for traders by enabling them to easily shift positions between related outcomes or take broader bets (e.g., predicting that a specific event will not occur, implying that one of the other possibilities will). The ability to convert excess "No" shares into collateral also provides a mechanism for unlocking capital. Furthermore, Negrisk markets can serve as a source of forward-looking data, potentially powering financial dashboards that provide insights into market expectations for various events, such as asset price ranges, interest rate changes, or company valuations. These data streams can be used to inform trading strategies, portfolio management, or risk assessment. ^[3]

LP Rewards

The Liquidity Provider (LP) Rewards program on Limitless is designed to incentivize users who contribute liquidity to the platform's markets by placing limit orders. Rewards are calculated and distributed based on factors including the proximity of the limit order to the market's midpoint price and the size of the order. To qualify for rewards, orders must meet or exceed a minimum size threshold specified for each market. The program aims to encourage the placement of competitive limit orders, which helps to reduce the bid-ask spread and increase the depth of the order books, contributing to a more robust trading environment.

Each market on Limitless has specific parameters that govern the distribution of LP Rewards. These parameters typically include the total daily USDC reward pool allocated for that market, the maximum allowable distance from the market midpoint for an order to qualify for rewards (e.g., a spread of 3 cents), and the minimum number of shares required for a limit order to be eligible (e.g., 100 shares). Limit orders placed closer to the market midpoint receive a higher proportion of the available rewards through a bonus multiplier, encouraging tighter spreads. To support balanced liquidity provision, rewards for placing one-sided liquidity (only buying or only selling) are generally limited to instances where the implied probability of the outcome is between 5% and 95%. These reward parameters are subject to adjustment based on the platform's needs and market conditions. ^[4]

Funding

As of July 2025, Limitless Exchange had raised a total of $7 million across two funding rounds. An initial pre-seed round secured $3 million, led by 1confirmation. This was followed by a strategic funding round that raised an additional $4 million. Participants in the strategic round included Arthur Hayes, through his family office Maelstrom, as well as Coinbase Ventures, Collider, Node Capital, Paper Ventures, Public Works, Punk DAO, and WAGMI Ventures. Individual investors from the Base Ecosystem Fund group on Echo also contributed to the funding.

The strategic funding round occurred after the platform gained traction with its short-term prediction markets, which allow users to speculate on asset price movements over short durations, including hourly expiries. These markets, described as similar in nature to 0DTE options but with a simpler trading experience, reportedly accumulated over $250 million in trading volume shortly after their introduction. In anticipation of a future token generation event (TGE), Limitless launched a points program designed to incentivize user activity, including trading, providing liquidity, and referring new users. The platform also introduced a mobile-optimized trading interface to enhance accessibility for a global user base. ^[5]